Shipping To Suffer Despite Record Trade In Iron Ore And Coal, With 35 Miles Of Ships Coming Out Of Shipyards In 2011

Новости

Bad news continues to mount for the shipping industry.  After seeing the Baltic Dry Index drop steadily since the end of October 2010, a survey by Bloomberg showed that with approximately 200 capesizes, or cargo ships spanning more than 1,000 feet, coming out of the shipyards this year, a surplus in vessels will lead to a glut that will produce additional pain to shipping companies.

  With the total length of the 200 new capesizes spanning 35 miles, worldwide cargo shipping fleets will grow by 18% this year.  And even though demand for minerals such as iron ore and coal will hit record levels in 2011, it won’t be enough to sustain shipping rates, which are expected to tank 34% to $22,000 a day, according to the survey conducted by Bloomberg.

  “The slump in rates is being caused by a vessel surplus not a contracting world economy,” says the Round Table of International Shipping Associations.  The facts seem to support their statement.   Shipping moves 90% of global trade, and this year will see dry and wet trade exceed 2 billion metric tons for the first time, according to shipbrokers Clarkson Plc.  The increase will be partially fueled by infrastructure development, as shipments of iron ore and coal will reach record values of 1.04 billion tons and 978 million tons respectively.  This growth is mainly supported by China, which is the world’s largest consumer of minerals used in steel and power, which has an economy that will grown 9% this year, according to Bloomberg estimates. (See Petrobras and CNOOC Expanding Early in 2011 As Global Balance of Power Shifts to the Emerging World).

  Rates had reached $35,000 per day during the fourth quarter of 2010, but have tanked since late October.  The index has recorded a 45% fall from since it hit its fourth quarter peak on October 27, 2010.  But the current surplus problem is a consequence of the exuberances of 2007 and 2008, when daily rates averaged $111,000 a day, hitting a peak of $233,988.  Tyler Durden, of ZeroHedge explains that “back in 2007 and 2008 every single dry shipping company had put in future delivery orders for everything from Panamax to Capesize vessels, at even the most shoddy of Chinese shipyards.”  Thus, the fall in rates responds to “orders starting to be completed, [causing] the world’s dry bulk shipping industry [to] suddenly experience[e] an unprecedented supply glut of coal/ore carriers.”

  Bruce Krasting, of SeekinAlpha.com, sees it differently.  Even though a vessel surplus has helped put a dent on prices, the effects will be short-term.  Rather, “the biggest driver in shipping is China. They have been importing all manner of raw materials and finished goods for two years on a massive scale. That trend has slowed markedly in just the past sixty-days. There is no indication that it will resume at anytime soon.”

  In deed China has been slowing down.  While the People’s Bank of China has embarked in monetary tightening to control inflation and avoid overheating, the import-export sector has been toning it down too.  On January 10, China released its December trade balance, with imports slightly above expectations, gaining 25.6%, but substantially below November’s 37.7% growth, according to TradeTheNews.  Export growth essentially halved, gaining 17.9%, compared with 34.9% for November.  China’s trade balance hit an 8-month low of $13.1 billion.

  Regardless of the causes, the drop in freight rates will hurt some and benefit others.  Miners, such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and Vale, will benefit hugely, as their transport costs fall substantially while demand for their product gains handsomely.  On the other side of the coin will be shipping companies such as DryShips, Genco Shipping & Trading, and Excel Maritime Carriers, which will have to adapt to a new environment if they want to survive.

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